Week-by-Week Preview: West Virginia

We are continuing our week-by-week preview of TCU’s 2016 football schedule.

Last week’s preview focused on a game that shouldn’t be close but probably will be. This week’s will focus on an opponent whose games against TCU are usually close and entertaining.

The West Virginia Mountaineers entered the Big 12 at the same time as TCU, and their relationship as conference newcomers has created a respectful rivalry.

TCU’s two previous trips to Morgantown, W. Va., have come down to the last play of the game, albeit under markedly different circumstances.

The Horned Frogs’ first trip to WVU came while they were scrapping to reach bowl eligibility in their first season in the Big 12. TCU won that game 39-38 in double overtime. The second game was their chance to get a statement win on the road as they made their case for inclusion in the College Football Playoff. TCU took that matchup as well, 31-30.

The weather in West Virginia slowed down the Frogs’ offense in each of those games, turning both into defensive struggles. This year’s matchup is in late October, which means both teams will have to deal with similar circumstances again.

In those elements, the team that imposes its will in the running game will have a distinct advantage. The Frogs will never have a smashmouth rushing attack under Doug Meacham and Sonny Cumbie, but leaning a little more on Kyle Hicks will help them avoid turnovers and prevent the WVU defensive line from being able to just charge upfield after the quarterback.

With Shaun Nixon out for the season, TCU will have to go even deeper down the depth chart at running back. Trevorris Johnson, Derrick Green and maybe even Sewo Olonilua could get a chance to carry the ball a few times to give Hicks a breather. Those three all have the ability run between the tackles and punish defenders.

WVU quarterback Skyler Howard will be facing a much deeper and more experienced TCU defense. Ranthony Texada is back at corner, and Kenny Iloka is back at weak safety. Those two are athletes who can cover ground quickly to make plays on the ball. And they rejoin a secondary that already boasts safeties Denzel Johnson and Nick Orr. Howard will have trouble completing a ton of passes against that group.

The Frogs are still thin at corner though. After Texada, there’s a lot of athleticism but not a lot of proven names. If WVU can be patient and rely on the run, then take a couple shots downfield against TCU’s second and third corner options, the Mountaineers may be able to score some quick points.

TCU’s offense is retooling, so the weather in Morgantown may complicate things more than in years past. WVU will be facing one of TCU’s best defenses ever (at least on paper). This game has the best chance of any on TCU’s schedule to end up a low-scoring affair. That would probably also mean another game that comes down to the last few plays. Given the history of this series, that seems rather fitting.