Week-By-Week Preview: Oklahoma

Five weeks into the 2016 season, TCU will face its biggest test of the year.

We are continuing our week-by-week preview of the 2016 football season, counting down the weeks until Sep. 3 and the season opener. Last week, we examined the Horned Frogs’ game against Iowa State. This week, it’s the conference favorite and a preseason College Football Playoff hopeful.

Just like in 2014, TCU will once again open October by hosting Oklahoma. Just like in 2014, the Sooners will once again come to Fort Worth as the Big 12 favorites.

The Frogs’ victory in that game set them on a path toward a Big 12 co-championship, a New Year’s Six bowl and a top-five ranking at the end of the season.

Whoever wins this game will probably be on the same trajectory.

Oklahoma is recognized as the team to beat in the Big 12. TCU is expected to have a shot at the conference crown too, especially since it gets the Sooners at home. This game will be the biggest challenge TCU’s defense will have faced yet. The Sooners were an explosive squad last season and return most of what made their offense so devastating.

Semaje Perine and Joe Mixon form the best running back tandem in the country. Their running ability sets up play-action and the deep passing game for Baker Mayfield, a Heisman hopeful with a bit of a grudge against the Frogs.

Mixon and Perine combined for 203 rushing yards and each averaged more than seven yards per carry against TCU last season, which is one reason the Sooners were able to survive even after Mayfield left the game with a concussion.

Oklahoma struggled to run the ball three times last season: against Tennessee, Texas and Clemson. The Sooners were 1-2 in those games, and they would have been 0-3 had it not been for a wild late comeback against the Vols. Slowing down the Sooners’ ground attack is the key to defeating them. On Oct. 1, much of that duty will fall to TCU’s linebackers.

The Frogs boast more depth at linebacker this season with the return of Sammy Douglas and the signing of 4-star JUCO recruit Tyree Horton. Ty Summers proved to be a capable run stuffer late in the year, and Travin Howard was one of the Frogs’ most consistent defenders in 2015. Expect Gary Patterson to run blitz on early downs in order to force the Sooners to become one-dimensional.

The other half of the equation is TCU’s own offense. The Frogs have a lot to prove along the offensive line and at quarterback, but they’ll benefit from a Sooner defense that has lost many of its playmakers.

Oklahoma’s best linebacker (Eric Striker), top cornerback (Zack Sanchez) and most gifted pass rusher (Charles Tapper) from a year ago are all gone to the NFL. There will be more opportunities for a young TCU offense to make plays without those three on the field.

Similar to TCU’s defense, Oklahoma is vulnerable to big pass plays. The Frogs completed passes of 37, 44 and 86 yards against the Sooners in 2015. They also connected on passes of 29, 34 and 39 yards against Oklahoma in 2014. Deante’ Gray and KaVontae Turpin have the quickness to create separation on double-moves and wheel routes and get big chunks of yardage.

But getting those playmakers the ball will depend both on how TCU’s newly constructed offensive line holds and on the play of a new quarterback. Joseph Noteboom and Austin Schlottman have proven themselves reliable. Matt Pryor and Aviante Collins, however, have struggled to get on the field, and Patrick Morris is a relatively unknown quantity.

Behind them, TCU will need some consistency at quarterback. Foster Sawyer’s erratic play against the Sooners led Patterson to go with Bram Kohlhausen in the second half last year. The Frogs can’t afford to be cycling between quarterbacks in this game. The starter, whether Sawyer or Kenny Hill, has to make good decisions.

The outcome of this game will be decided by those two factors: the effectiveness of Oklahoma’s run game and the consistency of the TCU passing attack. Whichever team wins those two matchups will emerge from this game with the best chance at a Big 12 title.