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Published Nov 23, 2018
How TCU can beat Oklahoma State and clinch a bowl trip
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Matt Jennings  •  PurpleMenace
Staff Writer
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@MattAJennings

Against all odds, TCU football enters the final week of the season with a chance at a bowl game. But the Oklahoma State Cowboys stand in their way.

The Horned Frogs need one more win to clinch a bowl berth. The Cowboys clinched a bowl last week against West Virginia, roaring back to beat the Mountaineers in the final minutes at home. Just hours earlier, TCU had won a rivalry game at Baylor to keep its bowl hopes alive.

So what can TCU do to extend its season by one more game? Here are the keys for the Frogs to beat the Cowboys for the second year in a row and just the third time in Big 12 play.

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Give the ball to Jalen Reagor. A lot.

Jalen Reagor is putting up one of the best receiving seasons in TCU history, and he still has at least one game left to add to his numbers.

The sophomore wideout is currently tied for fourth place in school history for receptions in a single season with 64, and he's in sixth place for receiving yards (970) and receiving touchdowns (8). He needs just 3 catches and 49 yards this week to move into second place in both of those categories, and 2 touchdown catches would put him in a tie for third.

So by the end of Saturday night, he could be ahead of every player in the program record book not named Josh Doctson. And he would have done it playing with three different quarterbacks in an offense with very few other weapons.

What I'm trying to say is: let Jalen Reagor cook.

He's the main reason TCU pulled out the win at Baylor last week, scoring both of the Frogs' only touchdowns. His 65-yard catch-and-run score on a screen pass should have been a negative play, but he got to the end zone thanks to pure athleticism. His 37-yard rushing touchdown on a reverse out of the wildcat was an inventive way of getting him the ball in space, and it paid off.

Those are the kinds of plays TCU will need in order to keep up with Oklahoma State's dynamic offense. Whether it's screens, sweeps, double passes, or some other kind of gadget play, the Frogs should be looking to get the ball in his hands. And if they do that, it could be enough to clinch a bowl berth and give Reagor one more chance to keep moving up in the record books.

A swan song for Ben Banogu and L.J. Collier

Oklahoma State's offense is rolling right now, averaging 40.25 points per game over the last four weeks. Quarterback Taylor Cornelius has been solid, running back Justice Hill is having another great season, and wide receiver Tylan Wallace is a Biletnikoff Award finalist with 1,344 yards and 11 touchdowns. With all those weapons, the Cowboys don't have many weaknesses on offense.

If TCU wants to slow them down, however, there are two main areas to focus on: sacks and turnovers. Oklahoma State is -7 turnover margin this year, which ranks 108th nationally, and the Cowboys allow a sack rate of 6.9 percent on offense, which ranks 74th.

The Frogs finally broke through to win the turnover battle decisively last week against Baylor (+3), and that started with the pass rush getting in the quarterback's face and forcing bad decisions. Enter Ben Banogu and L.J. Collier, who will be playing in their final home game at TCU on Saturday night.

Banogu has 7.5 sacks and 16.5 tackles for loss, which puts him on pace to match or surpass his marks from last year (8.5, 16.5) despite playing two fewer games. Collier has also been solid, consistently grading out as one of the best pass rushers in the country in terms of pressures.

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If Banogu and Collier can take advantage of an inconsistent Oklahoma State offensive line, they should be able to disrupt Cornelius and force some poor throws. Then the secondary just has to take advantage of those opportunities.

Protect Grayson Muehlstein

While Oklahoma State gives up a lot of sacks, it also racks up a lot of its own. The Cowboys rank No. 4 in the FBS with 38 sacks this season, and they're No. 22 in sack rate at 8.4 percent.

The Frogs will have to keep Grayson Muehlstein upright in order to have a chance in this game. That may mean leaning on the run game more to keep the Oklahoma State defensive line occupied, and it could also mean bringing in an extra blocker such as tight end Cole Novak to protect Muehlstein on pass plays.

Mike Collins is likely done for the year, and Justin Rogers still isn't ready to see the field. That means an injury to Muehlstein would mean walk-on fourth-string quarterback Karson Ringdahl trying to lead the team to bowl eligibility. The Frogs would like to avoid that, so expect them to do everything they can to keep Muehlstein healthy and on the field.

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