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August 10, 2012

Five-star choice: Should I stay or should I go?


The highest-rated uncommitted Class of 2013 prospect is from Florida. And there's a good chance he will end up at a college outside the Sunshine State.

Neither of those statements should come as much of a surprise to anyone who has followed recruiting lately.

The state of Florida produced a combined total of 13 five-star prospects in 2011 and 2012. Only five of them (Florida State safety Karlos Williams, Florida State running back James Wilder Jr., Miami cornerback Tracy Howard, Florida defensive end Dante Fowler and Miami running back Duke Johnson) signed with Florida schools.

Lake City Columbia offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil could continue that trend. Tunsil, the No. 7 overall prospect in the Class of 2013 and the top-rated uncommitted recruit, has indicated that his top three schools are Alabama, Florida and Georgia.

The tendency of elite recruits from Florida to leave the state is a recent development. In fact, since the current version of Rivals.com formed in 2002, five-star prospects from Florida high schools actually have been more likely to stay in their home states for college than five-star recruits from California or Texas high schools.

Exactly two-thirds of the 51 five-star recruits from Florida have chosen in-state schools, compared to 65 percent from California high schools and 53.7 percent from Texas high schools.

The results change if we extend the study to include all Rivals100 prospects. Just over 70 percent of the Rivals100 prospects from California high schools have signed with home-state colleges, compared to 64.2 percent for Florida and 61.1 percent for Texas.

But those numbers are skewed a bit by history.

Back when Florida State and Miami weren't far removed from winning national titles, all the Sunshine State's elite recruits chose to stay home. Florida produced a combined total of 11 five-star prospects in 2002 and 2003, and every single one of them signed with Florida, Florida State or Miami.

Now those guys are much more likely to look elsewhere.

"It falls in line with Florida State and Miami not being dominant programs," Rivals.com national recruiting analyst Mike Farrell said. "They were back then. They aren't now. Until they go to BCS games, until they win a national championship, there are other opportunities out there.''

Perhaps the trend will change this year.

Of the three Florida 2013 recruits currently rated as five-star prospects, the only one who has committed anywhere is Tampa Wharton cornerback Vernon Hargreaves III, who selected Florida.

Although Tunsil has two out-of-state schools in his top three, five-star linebacker Matthew Thomas of Miami Booker T. Washington told Warchant.com last month that Florida State was his leader.

But at least for now, elite prospects in other Southeastern states seem more inclined to stay home than top recruits from Florida.

KEEPING THEM HOME
In the main bar of this story, we've listed the percentages of five-star prospects from each state who signed with home-state colleges since the current version of Rivals.com started in 2002. This chart expands the study to show the percentages of Rivals100 recruits from each state who signed with home-state colleges rather than going elsewhere. We included only those states that have produced at least seven Rivals100 recruits since 2002.
StateStayedLeftStay Pct.
Alabama 31977.5
Louisiana3210 76.2
California994170.7
Mississippi167 69.6
Michigan 17868.0
Arkansas6366.7
Nebraska4266.7
Virginia191065.5
Oklahoma116 64.7
Florida1116264.2
South Carolina191261.3
Texas885661.1
Ohio29 2059.2
Missouri9756.3
Oregon5455.6
Tennessee7653.8
Georgia373352.9
Arizona6746.2
Colorado 4640.0
Indiana 3537.5
Kentucky3537.5
Pennsylvania12 2830.0
Kansas 2528.6
Maryland51426.3
North Carolina10 3323.3
Illinois51821.7
New Jersey518 21.7
D.C.*1 516.7
Utah1516.7
New York080.0
* - We indicated that a D.C. high school prospect signed with a home-state school if he chose a college in Maryland or Virginia.

We've put together a list below showing the percentage of five-star high school recruits in each state who signed with home-state colleges.

We only considered states that had produced at least five five-star prospects since 2002. At least three-quarters of the five-star prospects in SEC strongholds Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana and South Carolina have opted for home-state schools. The only other states to reach that 75-percent mark were Michigan and Virginia.

Keep in mind that for the purposes of this project, we only included five-star recruits who signed with a Division I program directly out of high school.

Our Texas and California totals don't measure players who went to Texas or California junior colleges before beginning their Division I careers. Our Virginia statistics don't include players from Chatham (Va.) Hargrave Military Academy or Fork Union (Va.) Military Academy.

1. MISSISSIPPI: 87.5 percent: Stayed (7): 2002: Hernando DE Deljuan Robinson (Mississippi State), Brandon RB Jerious Norwood (Mississippi State). 2003: Jackson Provine S Quinton Culberson (Mississippi State). 2005: Waynesboro Wayne County DT Jerrell Powe (Ole Miss). 2008: Ocean Springs WR DeAndre Brown (Southern Mississippi). 2011: Philadelphia LB C.J. Johnson (Ole Miss). Left (1): 2010: Olive Branch OT Shon Coleman (Auburn).

2. MICHIGAN: 85.7 percent: Stayed (6): 2002: Southfield DT Gabe Watson (Michigan). 2003: Saginaw LB LaMarr Woodley (Michigan). 2005: East Grand Rapids RB Kevin Grady (Michigan). 2006: Detroit Crockett LB Brandon Graham (Michigan). 2009: Detroit Cass Tech DT William Campbell (Michgan). 2010: Detroit Southeastern DE William Gholston (Michigan State). Left (1): Muskegon WR Ronald Johnson (USC).

3. ALABAMA: 83.3 percent: Stayed (10): 2002: Selma WR Ben Obomanu (Auburn). 2006: Birmingham Huffman OT Andre Smith (Alabama). 2008: Foley WR Julio Jones (Alabama), Prichard Vigor ATH Burton Scott (Alabama), Mountain Brook OT Tyler Love (Alabama). 2009: Foley OT D.J. Fluker (Alabama), Gadsden City CB Dre Kirkpatrick (Alabama), Andalusia LB Nico Johnson (Alabama). 2010: Millbrook Stanhope Elmore CB Dre Milliner (Alabama). 2012: Daphne RB T.J. Yeldon (Alabama). Left (2): 2003: Hoover WR Chad Jackson (Florida). 2012: Hueytown QB Jameis Winston (Florida State).

4. (tie) LOUISIANA: 75.0 percent: Stayed (9): 2004: St. Martinville WR Early Doucet (LSU). 2005: Reserve East St. John QB Ryan Perrilloux (LSU). 2006: Elton DT Al Woods (LSU). 2007: Baton Rouge Southern Lab ATH Chad Jones (LSU). 2009: Bastrop WR Rueben Randle (LSU), Mansfield DT Chris Davenport (LSU). 2011: Baton Rouge Redemptorist OT La'El Collins (LSU), New Orleans O. Perry Walker DT Anthony Johnson (LSU), Lutcher WR Jarvis Landry (LSU). Left (3): 2007: River Ridge John Curtis RB Joe McKnight (USC). 2009: Lake Charles Barbe CB Janzen Jackson (Tennessee). 2012: Geismar Dutchtown S Landon Collins (Alabama).

4. (tie) SOUTH CAROLINA: 75.0 percent: Stayed (6): 2002: Greenwood LB Ricardo Hurley (South Carolina). 2003: Lexington RB Demetris Summers (South Carolina). 2006: Bamberg-Ehrhardt DE Ricky Sapp (Clemson). 2008: Bamberg-Ehrhardt DE Da'Quan Bowers (Clemson). 2010: Duncan Byrnes RB Marcus Lattimore (South Carolina). 2011: Rock Hill South Pointe DE Jadeveon Clowney (South Carolina). Left (2): 2007: North Charleston Fort Dorchester DE Carlo Dunlap (Florida). 2008: Summerville WR A.J. Green (Georgia).

4. (tie) VIRGINIA: 75.0 percent: Stayed (6): 2002: Newport News Warwick QB Marcus Vick (Virginia Tech), Virginia Beach Princess Anne DE Kai Parham (Virginia), Newport News Heritage RB Michael Johnson (Virginia), Woodbridge C.D. Hylton LB Ahmad Brooks (Virginia). 2005: Highland Springs ATH Victor "Macho" Harris (Virginia Tech). 2007: Hampton QB Tyrod Taylor (Virginia Tech). Left (2): 2006: Virginia Beach Landstown WR Percy Harvin (Florida). 2011: Richmond Heritage LB Curtis Grant (Ohio State).

7. FLORIDA: 66.7 percent: Stayed (34): 2002: St. Petersburg Catholic ATH Chris Davis (Florida State), Orlando Dr. Phillips WR Ryan Moore (Miami), Jacksonville Andrew Jackson RB Leon Washington (Florida State), Neptune Beach Fletcher RB Ciatrick Fason (Florida), Punta Gorda Charlotte WR DiShon Platt (Florida State), Tallahassee Lincoln S Pat Watkins (Florida State), Riviera Beach Suncoast CB Devin Hester (Miami). 2003: Tallahassee North Florida Christian LB Ernie Sims (Florida State), Tampa Jefferson WR Andre Caldwell (Florida), Jacksonville Ed White CB Dee Webb (Florida), Palm Bay DE Joe Cohen (Florida). 2004: Miami Carol City LB Willie Williams (Miami), Daytona Beach Seabreeze QB Xavier Lee (Florida State). 2005: Tallahassee Lincoln WR Fred Rouse (Florida State), Miami Carol City S Kenny Phillips (Miami), Pahokee RB Antone Smith (Florida State). 2006: Ponte Vedra Beach Nease QB Tim Tebow (Florida). 2007: Seffner Armwood DT Torrey Davis (Florida), Ponte Vedra Beach Nease OG James Wilson (Florida). 2008: Miami Northwestern DT Marcus Forston (Miami), Crawford Wakulla LB Nigel Bradham (Florida State), Seffner Armwood OT Matt Patchan (Florida). 2009: Sanford Seminole ATH Ray Ray Armstrong (Miami), Madison County DT Jacobbi McDaniel (Florida State), Sanford Seminole WR Andre Debose (Florida), Quincy West Gadsden DT Gary Brown (Florida). 2010: Fort Lauderdale St. Thomas Aquinas DB Lamarcus Joyner (Florida State), Winter Park Lake Howell LB Christian Jones (Florida State), Palm Beach Gardens William T. Dwyer S Matt Elam (Florida). 2011: Davenport Ridge S Karlos Williams (Florida State), Tampa Plant RB James Wilder Jr. (Florida State). 2012: Miramar CB Tracy Howard (Miami), St. Petersburg Lakewood DE Dante Fowler Jr. (Florida), Miami Norland RB Duke Johnson (Miami). Left (17): 2004: Lake Mary LB Keith Rivers (USC), Palm Bay WR Xavier Carter (LSU). 2005: Miami Killian CB Demetrice Morley (Tennessee). 2006: Lake Butler Union County RB C.J. Spiller (Clemson), Fort Lauderdale St. Thomas Aquinas OT Sam Young (Notre Dame). 2007: North Fort Myers RB Noel Devine (West Virginia). 2008: Pompano Beach Ely CB Patrick Johnson* (LSU), Orlando Edgewater OT Michael Brewster (Ohio State). 2009: Pensacola Escambia RB Trent Richardson (Alabama). 2011: Orlando Dr. Phillips S HaHa Clinton-Dix (Alabama), St. Augustine Pedro Menendez LB Tony Steward (Clemson), South Fort Myers WR Sammy Watkins (Clemson), Orlando Dr. Phillips RB Dee Hart (Alabama), Punta Gorda Charlotte RB Mike Bellamy (Clemson). 2012: Tampa Berkeley Prep WR Nelson Agholor (USC), Jacksonville Bolles OT John Theus (Georgia), Panama City Arnold ATH Eddie Williams (Alabama).

8. CALIFORNIA: 65.0 percent: Stayed (26): 2002: Los Gatos QB Trent Edwards (Stanford). Long Beach Poly TE Marcedes Lewis (UCLA). 2003: San Diego Helix RB Reggie Bush (USC), Ventura St. Bonaventure ATH Whitney Lewis (USC). 2004: San Jose Valley Christian DE Jeff Schweiger (USC), Los Angeles Fremont OT Thomas Herring (USC). 2006: Eureka LB Rey Maualuga (USC), Mission Viejo QB Mark Sanchez (USC), Long Beach Poly WR DeSean Jackson (California). 2006: Colton LB/RB Allen Bradford (USC), Los Angeles Dorsey RB Stafon Johnson (USC), Sylmar ATH C.J. Gable (USC). 2007: Anaheim Servite LB Chris Galippo (USC), Westlake Village Oaks Christian RB Marc Tyler (USC). 2008: Anaheim Servite OT Matt Kalil (USC), Moreno Valley Rancho Verde OT Tyron Smith (USC). 2009: Santa Ana Mater Dei QB Matt Barkley (USC), Ventura St. Bonaventure ATH Patrick Hall (USC), Fresno Edison S T.J. McDonald (USC). 2010: Gardena Junipero Serra ATH Robert Woods (USC), San Diego Mission Bay RB Dillon Baxter (USC). 2011: Gardena Junipero Serra WR George Farmer (USC). 2012: San Clemente OT Kyle Murphy (Stanford), Monrovia DT Ellis McCarthy (UCLA), Atwater Buhach DE Aziz Shittu (Stanford), Encino Crespi OG Jordan Simmons (USC). Left (14): 2002: Ventura St. Bonaventure RB Lorenzo Booker (Florida State), Thousand Oaks QB Ben Olson (BYU), Bakersfield East OT Nathan Rhodes (Washington). 2003: Danville Monte Vista QB Kyle Wright (Miami). 2004: Concord De La Salle WR Cameron Colvin (Oregon). 2005: North Hollywood RB Marlon Lucky (Nebraska). 2007: Westlake Village Oaks Christian QB Jimmy Clausen (Notre Dame), Long Beach Poly CB Donovan Warren (Michigan). 2008: Ventura St. Bonaventure RB Darrell Scott (Colorado), Sherman Oaks Notre Dame QB Dayne Crist (Notre Dame). 2009: Corona Centennial LB Vontaze Burfict (Arizona State). 2010: Moreno Valley Rancho Verde DE Ronald Powell (Florida). 2011: Los Angeles Crenshaw ATH De'Anthony Thomas (Oregon). 2012: Sacramento Grant S Shaq Thompson (Washington).

9. TEXAS: 53.7 percent: Stayed (22): 2002: Houston Madison QB Vince Young (Texas), Lufkin ATH Reggie McNeal (Texas A&M), Houston Alief Hastings DT Rodrique Wright (Texas), Plano East OG Justin Blalock (Texas). Garland North Garland CB Edorian McCullough (Texas). 2003: Houston Alief Elsik TE Tony Hills Jr. (Texas), Jasper OT Jorrie Adams (Texas A&M). 2004: Richardson Lake Highlands DT Frank Okam (Texas). 2005: Houston Alief Taylor TE Martellus Bennett (Texas A&M). 2006: Dallas Woodrow Wilson LB Sergio Kindle (Texas), Kilgore DE Eddie Jones (Texas). 2007: South Grand Prairie OG Tray Allen (Texas), Gilmer CB Curtis Brown (Texas). 2009: Pflugerville DE Alex Okafor (Texas), Austin Lake Travis QB Garrett Gilbert (Texas), Beaumont West Brook RB Christine Michael (Texas A&M), Wolfforth Frenship OT Mason Walters (Texas). 2010: Plano West DE Jackson Jeffcoat (Texas). 2011: Cibolo Steele RB Malcolm Brown (Texas). 2012: Aledo RB Johnathan Gray (Texas), Spring Dekaney RB Trey Williams (Texas A&M), Brenham DT Malcom Brown (Texas). Left (19): 2003: Euless Trinity OG Ofa Mohetau (BYU), Denton Ryan DE Jarvis Moss (Florida). 2004: Palestine RB Adrian Peterson (Oklahoma), Grand Prairie QB Rhett Bomar (Oklahoma), Arlington Grace Preparatory WR Lance Leggett (Miami). 2005: Houston Booker T. Washington OT Reggie Youngblood (Miami), Dallas Kimball DT DeMarcus Granger (Oklahoma). 2006: Dallas Highland Park QB Matthew Stafford (Georgia). 2007: Texarkana Texas QB Ryan Mallett (Michigan), Hempstead WR Terrance Toliver (LSU). 2008: Fort Worth Fossil Ridge DE R.J. Washington (Oklahoma), Van RB Jermie Calhoun (Oklahoma), Paris OT Stephen Good (Oklahoma). 2009: Houston Cypress Ridge QB Russell Shepard (LSU), Aldine Eisenhower S Craig Loston (LSU). 2010: Temple RB Lache Seastrunk (Oregon). 2011: Whitehouse WR Trey Metoyer (Oklahoma), Brookshire Royal RB Brandon Williams (Oklahoma). 2012: Denton Ryan DT/DE Mario Edwards (Florida State).

10. (tie) GEORGIA: 52.9 percent: Stayed (9): 2003: Kennesaw Harrison CB Paul Oliver (Georgia), Stone Mountain Stephenson RB Kregg Lumpkin (Georgia). 2004: Colquitt Miller County DE Brandon Miller (Georgia). 2006: Atlanta Booker T. Washington S Reshad Jones (Georgia). 2008: Cartersville Cass ATH Richard Samuel (Georgia). 2009: Atlanta Booker T. Washington CB Branden Smith (Georgia). 2011: Thomasville Thomas County Central DE Ray Drew (Georgia), Columbus Carver RB Isaiah Crowell (Georgia). 2012: Valdosta Lowndes ATH Josh Harvey-Clemons (Georgia) Left (8): 2005: LaGrange LB Tray Blackmon (Auburn). 2007: Fairburn Creekside CB Eric Berry (Tennessee), Atlanta Westlake QB Cam Newton (Florida). 2008: Buford DT Omar Hunter (Florida). 2009: Valdosta Lowndes CB Greg Reid (Florida State). 2010: Calhoun WR Da'Rick Rogers (Tennessee), McDonough Henry County WR Markeith Ambles (USC). 2011: Monroe Area DE Stephon Tuitt (Notre Dame).

10. (tie) OHIO: 52.9 percent: Stayed (9): 2002: Avon Lake LB Mike D'Andrea (Ohio State), Warren Harding RB Maurice Clarett (Ohio State). 2004: Cleveland Glenville WR Ted Ginn Jr. (Ohio State). 2005: Lakewood St. Edward OT Alex Boone (Ohio State). 2006: Akron Garfield RB Chris Wells (Ohio State), Cleveland Glenville DE Robert Rose (Ohio State). 2008: Dublin Coffman OT Mike Adams (Ohio State), Cincinnati La Salle WR DeVier Posey (Ohio State). 2012: Cincinnati Taft DE Adolphus Washington (Ohio State). Left (8): 2003: Warren Harding S Prescott Burgess (Michigan). 2004: Toledo Rogers TE/WR Fred Davis (USC). 2007: Cincinnati La Salle DE Ben Martin (Tennessee). 2008: Cincinnati Elder TE Kyle Rudolph (Notre Dame). 2010: Cleveland Glenville ATH Latwan Anderson (Miami), West Chester Lakota West LB Jordan Hicks (Texas), Cincinnati Princeton ATH Spencer Ware (LSU). 2012: Lakewood St. Edward OT Kyle Kalis (Michigan).

12. PENNSYLVANIA: 36.4 percent: Stayed (4): 2004: Pittsburgh Penn Hills QB Anthony Morelli (Penn State), Wallingford Strath Haven LB Dan Connor (Penn State). 2005: Pittsburgh Gateway CB Justin King (Penn State). 2008: Aliquippa WR Jonathan Baldwin (Pittsburgh). Left (7): 2004: West Lawn Wilson QB Chad Henne (Michigan). 2005: Bryn Mawr Harriton DT Callahan Bright (Florida State). 2008: Jeannette QB Terrelle Pryor (Ohio State). 2009: Monroeville Gateway CB Corey Brown (Ohio State), Monroeville Gateway LB Dorian Bell (Ohio State). 2010: Philadelphia George Washington DT Sharrif Floyd (Florida). 2012: Harrisburg Bishop McDevitt LB Noah Spence (Ohio State).

13. NORTH CAROLINA: 35.7 percent: Stayed (5): 2002: Huntersville North Mecklenburg OT Derek Morris (North Carolina State). 2004: Greensboro Dudley DT DeMario Pressley (North Carolina State). 2007: Burlington Cummings WR Dwight Jones (North Carolina). 2009: Jacksonville Northside DE Donte Moss** (North Carolina). 2010: Raleigh Athens Drive OT Robert Crisp (North Carolina State). Left (9): 2002: Shelby Crest OG Brandon Jeffries (Tennessee). 2006: Shelby Crest LB Brandon Spikes (Florida), Durham Southern OG Carl Johnson (Florida). 2007: Garner WR Chris Culliver (South Carolina). 2010: Grensboro Northern Guilford DB/WR Keenan Allen (California). 2011: Matthews Butler LB Kris Frost (Auburn), Wadesboro Anson LB Stephone Anthony (Clemson). 2012: Charlotte Mallard Creek OT D.J. Humphries (Florida), Shelby Crest DE Jonathan Bullard (Florida).

14. MARYLAND: 33.3 percent: Stayed (3): 2005: Randallstown DE Melvin Alaeze (Maryland). 2012: Olney Good Counsel WR Stefon Diggs (Maryland). Left (6): 2003: Baltimore Gilman DE Victor Abiamiri (Notre Dame). 2004: Greenbelt Eleanor Roosevelt DE Derrick Harvey (Florida). 2005: Greenbelt Eleanor Roosevelt ATH Derrick Williams (Penn State). 2006: Pornfret McDonough CB A.J. Wallace (Penn State). 2009: Olney Good Counsel LB Jelani Jenkins (Florida). 2011: Hyattsville DeMatha OT Cyrus Kouandjio (Alabama).

15. (tie) ILLINOIS: 28.6 percent: Stayed (2): 2003: Downers Grove South OT/OG Martin O'Donnell (Illinois). 2007: Chicago Simeon DE Martez Wilson (Illinois). Left (5): 2002: Champaign Centennial WR Marquis Johnson (Texas). 2004: Bolingbrook LB Kyle Williams (Iowa), Chicago Hubbard LB Chris Patterson (Oklahoma). 2005: Barrington OT Dan Doering (Iowa). 2010: Hillside Proviso West WR Kyle Prater (USC)

15. (tie) NEW JERSEY: 28.6 percent: Stayed (2): 2003: Irvington DT Nate Robinson (Rutgers). 2012: Ramsey Don Bosco Prep DE Darius Hamilton (Rutgers). Left (5): 2003: Wayne Hills TE Greg Olsen (Notre Dame). 2004: Ramsey Don Bosco Prep LB Brian Toal (Boston College). 2005: Plainfield OT Eugene Monroe (Virginia). 2006: Princeton Hun School ATH Myron Rolle (Florida State). 2008: Jersey City St. Peter's ATH Will Hill (Florida).

17. WASHINGTON: 20.0 percent: Stayed (1): 2004: Woodinville QB Matthew Tuiasosopo (Washington). Left (4): 2005: Lacey Timberline RB Jonathan Stewart (Oregon). 2006: Seattle O'Day ATH Taylor Mays (USC), Bellevue OG Stephen Schilling (Michigan). 2012: Lakewood Lakes OT Zach Banner (USC).

*-Patrick Johnson changed his name to Patrick Peterson before beginning his college career.

**-Donte Moss went by the name Donte Paige-Moss during his college career.



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